Impact Rookie Running Backs: What does this Mean?Recently, a trend of young running backs performing excellently has been a particularly noticeable pattern. This year, especially, the shining play of Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Kareem Hunt has been excellent. Cook has not been recognized as much following an unfortunate ACL tear and Kareem Hunt, along with the Chiefs, slowed down by the end of the year. However, that does not take away from the excellent play of these running backs. Kamara took home the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award through his impact play for New Orleans. Even Christian McCaffrey has found the field and has over 1,000 scrimmage yards and 7 touchdowns. Okay, one good class of running backs. But last year, the top two rushers of the year were Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard, both rookies that year. Past those, Derrick Henry, Alex Collins, and Rob Kelley have put up decent numbers and the latter two have won starting jobs. The year before, in 2015, Todd Gurley, who won Offensive Rookie of the Year, Melvin Gordon, Tevin Coleman, David Johnson, Jay Ajayi, and Thomas Rawls were all taken. All but Coleman and Rawls have been Pro Bowlers and fantasy players would love to have them on their team. The further you go back, the less franchise backs can be found, leading to an intriguing pattern of upward play of backs through each class. If I were to graph said data, based on how many starting backs each year has produced, it would look like this: 2017 (8)
2016 (6)
2015 (5)
2014 (3)
The Trend Is Established; What do we make of it?22 of 32 starting backs have been produced through the last 3 drafts, accounting for about 70% of starting running backs, as of 21 February 2018. This trend increases gradually over the years, but the pattern is apparent. Now, that the trend is established, what is the root cause?
It's difficult to say why young running backs have been largely successful over the past years. Since Trent Richardson in 2012, no first round running backs have been a bust or even largely unsuccessful in the NFL. There is no particular ruling advantage for why they have been experiencing a larger success rate than they did just five years ago. It is possible that through use of schematics, the transition from college to pro has been much smoother. It is important to note that as each year passes in the NFL, the aerial attack has heavily evolved into the dominant form of play, contrary to the run attack as evidenced through Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton in the '70's and '80's. This is due to a combination of factors, summarized in an article called "Passing league: Explaining the NFL's aerial evolution" by Steve Wyche. These factors are quarterbacks, personnel, schematics, mentality, and rules. The larger question to be asked is how can we use this data to improve or implement strategy in future years. This upcoming draft features not as strong a running back class as 2017, but is headlined by names, largely Penn State's polarizing prospect Saquon Barkley, Georgia's Sony Michel and Nick Chubb, LSU's Derrius Guice, Auburn's Kerryon Johnson, and USC's Ronald Jones II. They also just narrowly missed on Heisman finalist Bryce Love who forgoes the draft to return to Stanford for his senior year. I predict that, excepting the unpredictable factor being injury, each shall have large success in the NFL. Mainly, I think Saquon Barkley, the only top 10 talent in this group, will have an extremely successful NFL career and carries a very low chance of "bust potential". Assuming that said prediction can be held as true, it will be interesting how NFL GM's will react to this information. The success of recent backs could create a domino effect of running backs being taken much higher than previously expected. With the selection of Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette, both at #4 in 2016 and 2017, respectively, there was much speculation to whether that was too high for a running back. However, following the selection of each, both were able to heavily exceed expectation. The Dallas Cowboys finished as the number one seed in the NFC in the 2016 season and the Jacksonville Jaguars were narrowly beaten in the AFC Championship, this year. The opposite effect could also take place, where running backs drop because of the ability to acquire higher quality backs later evidenced by selections of Kamara, Hunt, and David Johnson each in the third round and Jay Ajayi and Jordan Howard (5th round). General managers could afford not to take higher quality backs earlier in the draft and focus instead of pass rush or secondary help, picking up a running back later that would have similar success. Despite how this impact future drafts, it certainly is an interesting phenomenon that may be attributed to a few lucky classes but seems to be an intriguing trend. This year, the Offensive Rookie of the Year was narrowed down to running backs following the injury of Deshaun Watson. Unless a talent like Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, or Allen can put up a good year, I'd look for the next OROY to be another running back.
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A Tale of the UnderdogIn sports, we're always looking for a story. The Patriots' 28-3 comeback was a great story. Josh Gordon returning to football after 2 years of drug rehab was a great story. Adrian Peterson bouncing back to a 2,000 yard season following a torn ACL and MCL was a great story. Hardship is an important theme, not only in football, but in sports in general. And from hardship sprouts adversity. And so, when the voters for MVP or ROY or OPOY sit down to vote, that's all in their heads. Only one thing wrong with that; that's not what the award is about. The most Most Valuable Player is awarded to the player whose team would suffer the most with their absence. For this, looking at numbers like yards, touchdowns, interceptions, receptions, and rushes do not define the MVP. Just a little background on the MVP award; just the way the NFL is designed, only two players are guaranteed to touch the ball all game: the center and the quarterback. Obviously, a center cannot win MVP, so that leaves the quarterback. The ball is guaranteed to go in his hands every play, unless a wildcat formation is used. For this reason, while receivers, running backs, and tight ends can be an incredible asset to a team, it is much more difficult for them to win MVP. So the MVP is generally going to be a quarterback, especially with the NFL becoming much more pass-heavy. Now that we've established that the MVP is generally a quarterback because of the way the game is created, it's important to look for recent trends in the data. The MVP voters seem to toss the idea of a player being most valuable out the window. Many seem to equate the idea of the best player and most valuable player which is not a valid comparison. It is difficult to quantify value without implementing a formula based off approved metrics, however a combination of factors are used. Of the last five years, these have been the MVP favorites, according to Bleacher Report: 20131. Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos 2. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers 3. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints 4. LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles 5. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers 20141. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers 2. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots 3. Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos 4. DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys 5. J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans 20151. Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers 2. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots 3. Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals 4. Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals 5. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers 20161. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons 2. Tom Brady, QB, Tom Brady 3. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers 4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys 5. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys 2017 (As of 7 December 2017)1. Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles 2. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots 3. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks 4. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints 5. Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers Note: Players only appearing once are bolded. Of the 25 candidates from the last five seasons, 13, or 52%, are newcomers. The rest are made up of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees. However, of 2015, 2016, and 2017 a newcomer won or is expected to win, in the case of Carson Wentz. The MVP lacks a trend of consistency. While Tom Brady, widely regarded as the greatest quarterback in the NFL today, and arguably the best during Peyton Manning's career, has been present in the top three of each vote except for the 2013 voting, he has only 2 MVP's in a 17-year and ongoing career where he has established himself as the winningest and most consistent quarterback in the NFL, without the presence of a superstar, discounting a brief stint with Randy Moss and the recent presence of Rob Gronkowski. He has not won an MVP since 2010, despite having a record of 75-21, winning around 78% of his games. Just last year, Matt Ryan won MVP only to follow with an average season this year. My candidate for MVP was Derek Carr, because it was most apparent to me that he was most deserving. Following his injury, the Raiders were a pushover and an easy win for a Texans team without a real quarterback. If not Carr, Aaron Rodgers carried a 4-6 team to a 10-6 record and what seemed to be a perfect Super Bowl story. Yet, Ryan won. Despite having arguably the best receiver in the league, Ryan won. Despite having one of the most talented offensive coordinators in the league, Ryan won. Despite having a top-5 run game in the league, Ryan won. Now tell me Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, each having consistent placements in the top 5 of MVP candidates could not perform better with the same team. This is no insult to Matt Ryan, but Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers is nothing. Oakland without Carr was nothing. I'm not so sure the same can be said about Atlanta with Matt Ryan. If the award was Best Player, I'd have no issue with Ryan winning. But it is the Most Valuable Player and Matt Ryan simply was not. And so, I'm not saying that Cam Newton or Carson Wentz do not deserve the MVP. However, I think we get captured by the story of a newcomer, an underdog. Too often, players like Rodgers, Manning, and Brady are portrayed as those to unseat because of their consistency. They make it look so easy that they become almost boring. I think that's important to keep in mind, that we do not take greatness for granted, even if it doesn't make the greatest story. We need to make sure that greatness is appreciated and that awards are held to their moral standard and duty, to be awarded to the most worthy nominee of that award. |
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