2020 MOCK DraftThe 2020 NFL Draft looks to be one of the most promising we have seen in some time. Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love headline the promising quarterback class with Burrow winning the hearts of many scouts as the number one quarterback in the class. Not to be forgotten, edge rusher Chase Young projects to be one of the best pass rusher prospects over the last few years. Offensive line talent has never been so athletic and NFL-caliber wide receivers come a dime a dozen. With teams like the Dolphins, Chargers, and Colts having quarterback needs, there is much anticipation on which direction each franchise decides to head in. And with the first overall pick, the Cincinnati Bengals select... 1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU2. Washington Redskins: CHase Young, EDGE, OHIO State
3. LOS Angeles Chargers (Trade with DET): Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
4. New York Giants: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
5. Miami Dolphins: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
6. Detroit Lions (Trade with LAC): Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
7. Carolina Panthers: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
8. Arizona Cardinals: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama
10. Cleveland Browns: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
11. New York Jets: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa
12. Las Vegas Raiders: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
13. Miami Dolphins (Trade with IND): Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
15. Denver Broncos: Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama
16. Atlanta Falcons: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida
17. Dallas Cowboys: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama18. Indianapolis Colts (Trade with MIA): Javon Kinlaw, DT, SOuth Carolina19. Oakland Raiders: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU20. Jacksonville Jaguars: K'Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU21. Philadelphia Eagles: Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado
22. Buffalo Bills: A.J. Epenesa, EDGE, IOWA
23. NEw England Patriots: Hunter bRyant, TE, Washington24. NEw Orleans Saints: Justin Jefferson, WR, lSU25. Minnesota Vikings: Trevon Diggs, CB, ALabama26. Miami Dolphins: Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma27. San Franciso 49ers (TRade with sea): Grant Delpit, S, LSU28. Baltimore Ravens: Josh Jones, OG, Houston29. Tennessee Titans: Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State30. Green Bay Packers: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson31. Seattle Seahawks (Trade with SF): Julian Okwara, EDGE, Notre dame
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
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It's been 3 yearsThis March, it will be three years since Peyton Manning retired. Ezekiel Elliott wasn't in the league. Todd Gurley won Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Saints had a losing record. The Jets went 10-6. The Rams would go on to win only four games that year. And John Elway still has no plan at quarterback. To preface, Elway had a remarkable NFL career and did win a Super Bowl in his tenure as general manager/ executive vice president since 2011. But just how well has he really done? DraftingJohn Elway won the Super Bowl during the 2015-16 season and he was the general manager for the five years before that, so he must have been a pretty good drafter, right? I'm not so sure. Here's a breakdown of his 64 picks. (Note: I am not crediting Elway with undrafted free agents like Chris Harris Jr. and Phillip Lindsay). 12 defensive backs: Only five are still on the team: Bradley Roby, Brendan Langley, Justin Simmons, Will Parks, and Isaac Yiadom. No Pro Bowlers or exceptional players here. 10 offensive linemen: Five are still on the team and three, Max Garcia, Matt Paradis, and Garett Bolles, currently start. No Pro Bowlers or exceptional players here. 9 defensive linemen: Three are still on the team: Derek Wolfe, Ada, Gotsis, and DeMarcus Walker, of which only Wolfe, a decent player, and Chubb, a promising young star, are starting. Again, no Pro Bowlers but I will admit Chubb is a future star. Elway did draft Malik Jackson, who became a Pro Bowler after leaving Denver. 5 quarterbacks: Elway spent a first round pick on Paxton Lynch, a seventh round pick on Siemian, a seventh on Chad Kelly, and a second round pick on Osweiler. Lynch has been a bust who has barely played and was released. Siemian was mediocre in the season he played. Chad Kelly was released. Osweiler has been a disaster with an ugly contract that somehow ended up back on the Denver roster. Not only has there been no Pro Bowlers, it's been an absolute mess drafting quarterbacks. 7 running backs: Only four are under contract: Devontae Booker, De'Angelo Henderson, fullback Andy Janovich, David Williams, and Royce Freeman. Pretty average group of backs. 9 linebackers: Of the seven, only two are starters. Elway hit with Von Miller who has been a superstar, but, with the second pick in the 2011 draft, Miller was an obvious choice. Shane Ray has been solid for Denver, though. 6 receivers: Only Courtland Sutton started last year of an unremarkable group: Cody Latimer, Carlos Henderson, Isaiah McKenzie and DaeSean Hamilton. 4 tight ends: Julius Thomas, a fourth-round pick, has been a 2-time Pro Bowler as a Denver Bronco but left as a free agent in 2015. As is the pattern, the rest have been strictly ordinary: Virgil Green, Jeff Heuerman, Troy Fumagalli, and Jake Butt. 1 punter: Riley Dixon was a seventh-round pick in 2016. No Pro Bowl nods. (First round picks: Von Miller (2011), no pick (2012), Sylvester Williams (2013), Bradley Roby (2014), Shane Ray (2015), Paxton Lynch (2016), Garett Bolles (2017), Bradley Chubb (2018)). In conclusion, only two of sixty-four players drafted by John Elway have been Pro Bowlers as Broncos: Von Miller and Julius Thomas, who Elway was unable to resign and has been unspectacular since leaving. Malik Jackson did get a Pro Bowl nod and was drafted by Elway but earned it as a Jaguar. I think it's fair to say Elway really hasn't been even a decent drafter. Mismanagement at quarterbackSince Peyton Manning, Denver has been a revolving door of mediocre quarterbacks. Denver had a Super Bowl winning roster that carried a beaten up Peyton Manning and, following his retirement, were just waiting for that quarterback to plug in to return them to that success like Green Bay did with Aaron Rodgers and Indianapolis with Andrew Luck. However, they were instead given a first round pick that was released because he couldn't stop playing video games, and Trevor Siemian, a 7th round no-name who threw more picks than touchdowns the last season he played. Elway was willing to consider inking up Brock Osweiler to a deal but smartly pulled out when Osweiler demanded more capital. Last year, Denver added another pass rusher instead of considering trading up to take Darnold or Mayfield or even taking Rosen, Allen, or Jackson later in the draft. Easily one of the best quarterback drafts in recent drafts, Denver were content with signing Case Keenum for the season, who threw for 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Typical Denver move. ConclusionA few days ago, Denver announced they signed Joe Flacco, perfectly tying into Denver's mantra of mediocrity at quarterback. It's just felt misguided and with no clear plan. The results have simply not been there for Denver, with a combined record of 20-28 in the last three seasons. If Denver wanted to change that, they would invest in a young quarterback to, at least, develop under a veteran like Flacco or Keenum. But it's just felt like Elway is shying away from finding a permanent answer and is hoping to stumble across someone and look like he knows what he's doing.
We've established that Elway really can't draft and has relied mostly off free agents to win any games. He runs away from drafting quarterbacks and has really only had one star out of sixty-four picks in the last eight years. Honestly, I'm not sure Elway would still have a job on any other team and is only still in a front office job because of his playing career and a Super Bowl ring his defense won him three years ago. I'm going to state this here and hold me to this statement; the Broncos aren't going to contend unless they secure an exceptional free agent quarterback or draft a young quarterback. If I'm the owner of the Broncos, John Elway's clock is ticking to make something happen. Go get Drew Lock, John. My distaste for the MVP award as a whole has been well recorded. It frankly isn't a great award with no clear definition and has frequently not lived up to its name. It should really be named the Best Player Award, because value really can't be determined unless the player isn't playing. Then, this means the award becomes a question of the best player with the worst roster award. However, assuming the MVP to be the best individual player with the most impact on the game, it's Patrick Mahomes: and it's not close. StatsPatrick Mahomes basically demolishes every other quarterback when it comes to stats. He was just edged out by Roethlisberger when it comes to passing yards but a 5,000 yard season is incredible in its own right. Mahomes is one of seven quarterbacks in NFL history to do so. His touchdown numbers are through the roof, throwing for 11 more than the next man. He joins Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks to ever throw for 50 touchdowns. The Kansas City offense averaging 35.3 points per game and 425.6 yards per game, both leading the NFL. Mahomes's stats are record breaking and simply awesome. No other MVP candidate really comes close to him in this category. Wins and Big GamesThe Chiefs locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC last night with a 12-4 record. A common criticism for why Mahomes isn't a MVP is that he wasn't able to win big games. In losses, the Chiefs averaged 37.5 points per game, higher than their average scoring. To blame losses against Rams, Patriots, Chargers, and Seahawks, all of which are playoff teams, on Patrick Mahomes is ridiculous. The Chiefs defense ranks 24th in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed, both of which Mahomes has had to carry all year. Supporting CastThe argument is made that Patrick Mahomes just benefits off of a great coach and talent all over the offense, including the likes of Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, and Travis Kelce. This is a valid argument but to suggest that Mahomes isn't anything more than a game manager is essentially inaccurate. Mahomes has countless plays where he scrambles around, buys time, and delivers an incredible play downfield. Not only that, but I can argue that he hasn't had a bad game all year other than in Week 5 against the Jaguars where he still won the game. This same argument can be attributed to Drew Brees who benefits off Sean Payton, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram. Other CandidatesThe other arguments made for MVP are notably Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and Aaron Donald. Drew Brees has had a great year and the Saints have been excellent this year. His stats just aren't on the same level as Mahomes. Brees having 18 touchdowns less is a number I can't wrap my head around. At first glance, Andrew Luck seems to have put up great numbers on a team that doesn't have the flashy talents that Kansas City does. But the Colts do boast the NFL's best offensive line as well as a tight end that caught 14 touchdowns. They had the 10th best scoring defense compared to Kansas City's 24th ranked scoring defense. Luck's numbers simply aren't on Mahomes level. While the Colts' salvaging of their season is admirable, I can't overlook that Luck did lead them to a 1-5 record in the first six games. Aaron Donald is a much more interesting argument. Donald's dominance is unprecedented in recent years, especially considering his role as an interior defensive lineman compared to an edge-rusher or outside linebacker like Von Miller, J.J. Watt, or Khalil Mack whose jobs are more focused on sacking the quarterback while Donald's is to create discomfort. It's difficult for me to compare Donald and Mahomes, so I feel this is a definitely valid argument. However, back to the value argument, I think it is extremely rare to find a defensive tackle, regardless of how dominant, that is more valuable than a quarterback. It's a lazy and cheap argument but that's the way the award has defined itself.
It's around now that football season gets really slow. Minicamp is underway and fans are restless. Things have settled down since the hype of the draft and we're reduced to watching LeBron lose to the Warriors again, instead of rooting for our favorite NFL team. Which is why I have decided to post my predictions for records in the NFL. Starting with the NFC, we kick it up north... NFCNFC North
NFC East
NFC SOUTH
NFC West
A day has passed since the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft concluded. The draft probably goes down as one of the most intriguing because of a stellar quarterback class headlined by Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson. There were a number of surprising moves and the classic moves up and down the draft board that surprised many, including me. four quarterbacks gone in ten picks, one more at the end to finish the first roundMAYFIELD: The draft kicked off with a huge shock. The Browns put in all their chips in Baker Mayfield in a move I didn't see coming. I thought Darnold was the right pick and the guy Cleveland was going to take. Mayfield is a boom or bust for me. I don't think he's Johnny Manziel but he does have a big personality that I'm not sure I like in Cleveland. I would have preferred him in Miami or Arizona but this is the new Cleveland. DARNOLD: I think Darnold should have gone number 1 by a mile and if not there, the Giants should have picked him up. I think him and Rosen are the best quarterbacks of this class and the New York Jets got themselves an anchor at quarterback for years. ALLEN: I wasn't sure at what spot but Buffalo seemed like the right pick for Allen. He's a big kid with a rocket arm that can play in cold weather. His accuracy does scare me without much of a receiving core there. ROSEN: Rosen slipped a little to 10 which he definitely didn't like. I did have a feeling he might slide but I figured that he was talented enough and someone would like him enough to take him. I also like him in Arizona competing with Sam Bradford for the starting job. Bradford does have a injury history, something that I think Rosen will benefit off. JACKSON: Often forgotten in the top tier of first round quarterbacks, Baltimore traded up to take Jackson. He ended up in the right situation and after sitting for Joe Flacco's last year in Baltimore, he should be able to take over in 2019. Wish the best for the kid. BOTTOM LINE: While I think Mayfield and Allen definitely have the ability to succeed in the right situation, I feel that Darnold and Rosen are the can't-miss prospects. I still feel Darnold should have gone #1 or at worst #2 but he should be able to succeed and learn in New York. Mayfield is a large personality but I don't think he'll bust in Cleveland. Allen's accuracy scares me but I think he has the arm for that climate. Rosen should beat out Bradford for the job if he can make the right impression in Arizona. Jackson will be the face of a bland Baltimore for years to come. Running backs early and lateBARKLEY: I thought New York needed to take Darnold here but they disagreed. Barkley is a tremendous player that I think can immediately benefit a New York team that haven't had a solid running back for as long as I can remember. He should be quick to sell jerseys there and will be an immediate fan-favorite. With the injury reserve wiped clean, Manning needs to turn it on for New York to have a real shot. PENNY: The Seattle Seahawks traded down and surprisingly selected Rashaad Penny, projected to be a 2nd to 3rd round pick, over notable backs such as Derrius Guice, Sony Michel, and Nick Chubb. As a Seahawks fan myself, I haven't seen much of his film but from what I have seen, he seems to be quick and has good vision. Apparently, there was interest from other teams and an unnamed team tried to trade for him after he was drafted. Maybe they're seeing something I'm missing. MICHEL: As projected by many, Sony Michel came off the board in the last couple picks of the draft to New England. It will be interesting to see how Belichick uses him as he joins a committee of backs. He has the ability to receive which I'm sure New England loves. BOTTOM LINE: The Penny pick was the one that surprised me of these three. Barkley was going to be gone early and I think New York needs offensive line help but Barkley will succeed. Penny went earlier than I thought but Carroll wants him to be a three-down back and there's no denying Seattle's run game has been lacking. Michel fits right into New England's system and it will be interesting to see his role this season. Receivers slip and shiftMOORE: D.J. Moore was the first receiver off the board to Carolina at #24. With good route running, quick feet, and nice hands, Moore fits into Carolina. Steve Smith had high praise for him, claiming that Carolina has not been able to replace him until yesterday, taking Moore. RIDLEY: Atlanta get one of the bigger steals of the draft with Calvin Ridley, the best route-runner and cleaner prospect of the draft. Paired with Julio Jones, the Atlanta offense just got a lot scarier. BOTTOM LINE: I thought Ridley would come off the board earlier, most probably to the 49ers, Ravens, or Cowboys. I still like Ridley more than Moore and think he will have more success but I do like Moore, who is a little more flashy than Ridley. Christian Kirk and Coutland Sutton were both not taken in the first round, it should be interesting to see where they end up. Defensive line help addressedCHUBB: Denver's defensive line just got way more fearsome with Bradley Chubb alongside Von Miller. I still think Denver should have taken a quarterback but Chubb is a very good pick for them. VEA: Bucs managed to trade down and still take the solid Washington product. Similar to Denver, his presence should help a current star in Gerald McCoy and take some stress off the interior defensive line. PAYNE: I think the Redskins reached a little with this pick. I would have focused on surrounding Alex Smith with more weapons for the time. But in a division where there are a lot of runners, interior defensive line help can't hurt. DAVENPORT: The Saints gave a boatload of picks to trade up for this boom-or-bust product out of small school UTSA. Davenport is an athletic freak standing at 6'7" and could make the New Orleans defense a lot scarier. BRYAN: The Jaguars picked up Bryan right at the end of the draft. I think they should have thought about taking a receiver with this pick but Bryan is a fine addition to a young defense that reminds me of the Legion of Boom's days. BOTTOM LINE: Chubb and Davenport stand out to me in this group as immediate playmakers. I think both have the skill set to be special in the NFL. Vea, Payne, and Bryan should be solid additions but I don't see them as having the same impact, maybe because of their position as well. secondary needs are primaryWARD: Cleveland surprised many by taking Ohio State's Denzel Ward instead of N.C. State's Bradley Chubb at #4. Ward is a physical corner who excels at press coverage. He went off the board quicker than I thought and I think Chubb would have been the better pick at #4 but Ward is still a respectable player that I think immediately upgrades the Cleveland secondary. FITZPATRICK: Minkah Fitzpatrick went off the board at #11, a little later than I thought he would, to Miami. He should pair well with Reshad Jones and make a fearsome pair in the Miami secondary. He is very versatile and should be comfortable playing corner for the Dolphins if they need. JAMES: Derwin James dropped more than I thought he would and I was hoping he would slip one more pick to Seattle. Many had him going #7 to Tampa but the Chargers are able to get a hard-hitting safety that reminds me a lot of Keanu Neal. ALEXANDER: Green Bay wanted a corner back that brought some life to their secondary and Alexander brings that. He has a swagger that Green Bay has been missing for some time and should start Day 1. EDMUNDS: I didn't like this pick. Heading up to the draft, I hadn't even heard of this kid, only his brother Tremaine that went earlier to the Bills. Pittsburgh did need secondary help and hopefully Edmunds can play for them but I think there were better options at this pick. HUGHES: Minnesota's corner back group needed to get younger and Minnesota did that with Hughes. He came off the board around where I thought he would and can make a quick impact. BOTTOM LINE: The teams that needed secondary help addressed it. Ward went earlier than I thought and Fitzpatrick and James slipped more than I thought they would. Alexander went where he should have but I think Pittsburgh should have taken Hughes over Edmunds. Overall, not a bad first round for the secondary. Big takeawaysAs it always does, the NFL Draft brought on a lot of surprises. The Baker Mayfield pick sent much into chaos. The Giants knew they were taking Barkley, I think, but the Jets had Darnold fall into their lap, something I don't think they were expecting when they traded up with the Colts. Cleveland surprised many again by taking Ward over Chubb which Denver happily took advantage of. Indianapolis made the smart pick of Nelson at pick #6 and Buffalo patiently waited until the dust cleared and traded up to take Allen. Chicago made a solid pick with a clean kid, Roquan Smith. 49ers surprised me with Mike McGlinchey at #9 but they are building to support Garoppolo. Arizona gladly traded up to pick up Rosen at 10. The rest of the draft didn't have too many crazy moves, just the slip of some players such as Ridley and James, both who are very capable playmakers. This is a very interesting draft class and it will be very exciting to see the 2018 season, especially how these quarterbacks perform.
This is my third and final mock draft. One of the best quarterback classes the draft has seen in a long time and a number of can't-miss prospects provide for an intriguing draft. A number of prospects have flown up draft boards and other have dropped. Reports have been leaked on which teams like which players and which teams are trading up to which pick. And, Cleveland is on the clock... 1. Cleveland Browns: Sam Darnold, QB, USC2. New York Jets (Projected Trade with New York Giants): Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming3. New York Giants (Projected Trade with New York Jets): Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State4. Buffalo Bills (Projected Trade with Cleveland Browns): Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA5. Denver Broncos: Bradley CHubb, DE, N.C. State6. Miami Dolphins (Projected Trade with Indianapolis COlts): Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB, Alabama8. Chicago Bears: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State9. San Francisco 49ers: Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame10. Oakland Raiders: Derwin James, S, Florida State11. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (PROJECTED TRADE WITH MIAMI DOLPHINS): TREMAINE EDMUNDS, LB, VIRGINIA TECH
12. CLEVELAND BROWNS (PROJECTED TRADE WITH BUFFALO BILLS): MIKE MCGLINCHEY, OT, NOTRE DAME 13. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: VITA VEA, DT, WASHINGTON 14. GREEN BAY PACKERS: MIKE HUGHES, CB, CENTRAL FLORIDA 15. ARIZONA CARDINALS: LAMAR JACKSON, QB, LOUISVILLE 16. BALTIMORE RAVENS: CALVIN RIDLEY, WR, ALABAMA 17. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: LEIGHTON VAN DER ESCH, LB, BOISE STATE 18. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: MARCUS DAVENPORT, DE, UTSA 19. DALLAS COWBOYS: COURTLAND SUTTON, WR, SMU 20. DETROIT LIONS: HAROLD LANDRY, DE, BOSTON COLLEGE 21. CINCINNATI BENGALS: KOLTON MILLER, OT, UCLA 22. BUFFALO BILLS: D.J. MOORE, WR, TEXAS A&M 23. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: JOSHUA JACKSON, CB, IOWA 24. CAROLINA PANTHERS: CHRISTIAN KIRK, WR, TEXAS A&M 25. TENNESSEE TITANS: ROQUAN SMITH, LB, GEORGIA 26. ATLANTA FALCONS: DA'RON PAYNE, DT, ALABAMA 27. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: HAYDEN HURST, TE, SOUTH CAROLINA 28. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: RASHAAN EVANS, LB, ALABAMA 29. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: ISIAIAH WYNN, OG, GEORGIA 30. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: CONNOR WILLIAMS, OT, TEXAS 31. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: MASON RUDOLPH, QB, OKLAHOMA STATE 32. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: JAIRE ALEXANDER, CB, LOUISVILLE Free agency has seen many high profile moves and has shaken up the shape of the NFL. Headlined by the signing of Kirk Cousins by the Vikings, a number of trades in the draft, and the rise and fall of prospects, it's time for mock draft 2.0. 1. Cleveland Browns: Sam Darnold, QB, USC2. Arizona Cardinals (Projected trade from New York Giants): Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
3. New York Jets: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming4. Cleveland Browns: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State5. Buffalo Bills (Projected Trade with Denver Broncos): Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma6. Indianapolis Colts: Bradley Chubb, DE, N.C. State7. Tampa Bay BucCaneers: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State8. Chicago Bears: Quenton nelson, G, Notre Dame9. San Francisco 49ers: Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama10. Oakland Raiders: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia11. Miami Dolphins: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
12. Denver Broncos (Projected Trade with buffalo Bills): Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA
13. Washington Redskins: Vita Vea, DT, Washington14. Green Bay Packers: Derwin James, S, FSU15. New York Giants (Projected Trade with Arizona Cardinals): Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame16. Baltimore Ravens: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama17. Los Angeles Chargers: Leighton VanDer Esch, LB, Boise State18. Seattle Seahawks: Harold Landry, DE, Boston College19. Dallas Cowboys: Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama20. Detroit Lions: Derrius Guice, RB, lSU21. CINCINNATI Bengals: Isaiah Wynn, G, Georgia22. Buffalo Bills: Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA23. New england Patriots: Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa24. Carolina Panthers: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU25. Tennessee Titans: James Daniels, C, Iowa26. Atlanta Falcons: Taven Bryan, DT, Florida27. New orleans Saints: Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama29. Jacksonville Jaguars: D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland30. Minnesota Vikings: Connor WilliaMs, OT, Texas31. New England patriots: Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State32. Philadelphia Eagles: Jaire Alexander, CB, LouisvilleOnce more, NFL draft season begins. A time of improvement, a time of excitement, and a time of hope for fans hoping to do even better than this last year. The 2018 NFL Draft is headlined by a strong quarterback class, boasting names like Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson. The speculation begins and each team hopes to land that impact player that can come in and perform the way they need a young superstar to. Cleveland kicks off this draft and with the first pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select... 1. Cleveland Browns: Sam Darnold, QB, USC
2. New York Giants: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
3. Indianapolis Colts: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
4. Cleveland Browns: Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB, Alabama5. Denver Broncos: Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame
6. New York Jets: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bradley Chubb, DE, N.C. State
8. Chicago Bears: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
9. San Francisco 49ers: Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa10. Oakland Raiders: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
11. Miami Dolphins: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia12. CINCINNATI Bengals: Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State13. Washington Redskins: Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA14. Green Bay Packers: Derwin James, S, FSU15. Arizona Cardinals: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma16. Baltimore Ravens: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech17. Los Angeles Chargers: Vita Vea, DL, Washington18. Seattle Seahawks: Connor Williams, OT, Texas
19. Dallas Cowboys: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU20. Detroit Lions: Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama21. Buffalo Bills: Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville22. Buffalo Bills: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame23. Los Angeles Rams: Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas24. Carolina Panthers: Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M25. Tennessee Titans: Harold landry, DE, Boston College26. Atlanta Falcons: Taven Bryan, DT, Florida27. New Orleans Saints: Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State29. Jacksonville Jaguars: James Washington, WR, OSU30. Minnesota Vikings: Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan31. New England patriots: Kolton Miller, T, UCLA32. Philadelphia Eagles: Donte Jackson, CB, LSUBrady vs FolesCertainly the headline of the Patriots-Eagles Super Bowl is Tom Brady's crammed trophy case versus the less impressive resume of Nick Foles. At age 40, Tom Brady enters his eight super bowl having already won five and looking for his sixth. Nick Foles' career has not been as star-studded having been traded and cut twice. In his second stint with the Philadelphia Eagles, Foles swooped in following the untimely ACL tear of MVP favorite Carson Wentz. His numbers have been reminiscent of his impressive 2013 Pro Bowl season, a form he has struggled to regain. Nick Foles tells a story of adversity. Foles has been doubted and labeled as a journeyman, not able to live up to expectations from a wonder year in Philly in his stint with the St. Louis Rams. In his last two playoff games, Foles has posted an astounding passer rating of 120.8, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a completion percentage of 77.8%. Much of his success in a season where he posted 27 touchdowns and remarkably only 2 interceptions, was credited to Chip Kelly, a quarterback whisperer of sorts. Following a poor follow up season, he was traded to St. Louis where he continued to not live up to his 2013 season. Many have doubted the Eagles, painting a strong team that finished as the number one seed as the underdog in this Super Bowl. With Nick Foles' recent form, I don't envision a blowout. Nick Foles did post the then-record of TD:INT ratio in 2013 only to be broken three years later by... Tom Brady tells a story of consistency. At age 40, he becomes the oldest player in major sports history to win the Most Valuable Player Award. Excluding the 2009 season, Tom Brady has been a model of health, currently in eighth for most consecutive starts with 112. With his top receiver out before the season began, Brady continues to post career numbers at an incredulous age, especially in such a physical sport. His playoff record is impeccable and his career win record is 77.7%, higher than his completion percentage. Of his eighteen years in the NFL, he has made the Super Bowl eight times, almost half of his professional career. With his retirement, which could still take years, Brady would have established himself not only as the greatest quarterback ever, not only the greatest football player ever, but perhaps the greatest athlete ever. Belichick vs PedersonHowever, while the Super Bowl is heavily dictated by the play of quarterbacks there are other factors. Bill Belichick, widely regarded as one of the most intelligent minds in football and a conservative play caller, leads the Patriots head to head against second-year head coach Doug Pederson, more of a gambler and a former quarterback himself. I would take Belichick in this matchup, simply because I feel he prepares his team much better, but Pederson is a very capable coach who, if his risk-taking pays off, threatens to be a force to reckon with. New ENgland Offense vs Philadelphia OffenseOffensively, both New England and Philadelphia's rank top three according to Pro Football Focus. Philadelphia boasts a receiving core of major free-agent signing Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, and Zach Ertz, who combined for 25 touchdowns, the most for a trio of receiving teammates. New England lost Julian Edelman prior to the season but Rob Gronkowski has been approved to play following his concussion in the AFC Championship game, Brandin Cooks comes off a strong performance, and Amendola looks to burst once more following an impressive game two weeks ago. In the run game, Philadelphia have bigger names in LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi, and Corey Clement but New England have their own trio of capable backs in Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, and James White, who exploded a year ago in the Super Bowl against Atlanta. I see similar production from both sides but Philadelphia will commit to the run more while Belichick's Patriots will utilize the pass-catching abilites of their backs. New England Defense vs Philadelphia defenseWhen it comes to defense, both Philadelphia and New England finished as top five scoring defenses, allowing 18.4 and 18.5 points on average. This is especially impressive for New England who through four weeks were on pace for the worst NFL defense ever and managed to turn it around dramatically. Philadelphia's turnover ratio stands at +11, ranking fourth in the NFL, due in large part to the 19 interceptions and 12 fumble recoveries, each also ranking fourth in the NFL, forced by their strong defense with names like Fletcher Cox and Malcolm Jenkins. New England's defense stands as one of the more disciplined defenses and are bolstered by the fact that Belichick is a defensive-minded head coach. While New England rank poorly in yards per game they manage to prevent high scoring games. They present a strong secondary consisting of Stephon Gilmore, Malcolm Butler, and Devin McCourty. While I think Philadelphia's defense will provide a strong challenge, the more formidable Jaguars defense has already been overrode by the Patriots offense designed by Josh McDaniels and executed to perfection by Tom Brady. So... Who's Going to Win?At the end of the day, this game can go either way. However, I've seen this scenario play out too many times and I have learned you never bet against the Patriots. Often, a team will swagger in to a large game and take leads against New England. The Legion of Boom in Super Bowl 49. Rise Up Nation in Super Bowl 51. Sacksonville in the AFC Championship Game. But Belichick always adjusts. And wins. The Super Bowl will follow like this, according to what I have seen and can predict:
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady Impact Rookie Running Backs: What does this Mean?Recently, a trend of young running backs performing excellently has been a particularly noticeable pattern. This year, especially, the shining play of Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Kareem Hunt has been excellent. Cook has not been recognized as much following an unfortunate ACL tear and Kareem Hunt, along with the Chiefs, slowed down by the end of the year. However, that does not take away from the excellent play of these running backs. Kamara took home the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award through his impact play for New Orleans. Even Christian McCaffrey has found the field and has over 1,000 scrimmage yards and 7 touchdowns. Okay, one good class of running backs. But last year, the top two rushers of the year were Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard, both rookies that year. Past those, Derrick Henry, Alex Collins, and Rob Kelley have put up decent numbers and the latter two have won starting jobs. The year before, in 2015, Todd Gurley, who won Offensive Rookie of the Year, Melvin Gordon, Tevin Coleman, David Johnson, Jay Ajayi, and Thomas Rawls were all taken. All but Coleman and Rawls have been Pro Bowlers and fantasy players would love to have them on their team. The further you go back, the less franchise backs can be found, leading to an intriguing pattern of upward play of backs through each class. If I were to graph said data, based on how many starting backs each year has produced, it would look like this: 2017 (8)
2016 (6)
2015 (5)
2014 (3)
The Trend Is Established; What do we make of it?22 of 32 starting backs have been produced through the last 3 drafts, accounting for about 70% of starting running backs, as of 21 February 2018. This trend increases gradually over the years, but the pattern is apparent. Now, that the trend is established, what is the root cause?
It's difficult to say why young running backs have been largely successful over the past years. Since Trent Richardson in 2012, no first round running backs have been a bust or even largely unsuccessful in the NFL. There is no particular ruling advantage for why they have been experiencing a larger success rate than they did just five years ago. It is possible that through use of schematics, the transition from college to pro has been much smoother. It is important to note that as each year passes in the NFL, the aerial attack has heavily evolved into the dominant form of play, contrary to the run attack as evidenced through Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton in the '70's and '80's. This is due to a combination of factors, summarized in an article called "Passing league: Explaining the NFL's aerial evolution" by Steve Wyche. These factors are quarterbacks, personnel, schematics, mentality, and rules. The larger question to be asked is how can we use this data to improve or implement strategy in future years. This upcoming draft features not as strong a running back class as 2017, but is headlined by names, largely Penn State's polarizing prospect Saquon Barkley, Georgia's Sony Michel and Nick Chubb, LSU's Derrius Guice, Auburn's Kerryon Johnson, and USC's Ronald Jones II. They also just narrowly missed on Heisman finalist Bryce Love who forgoes the draft to return to Stanford for his senior year. I predict that, excepting the unpredictable factor being injury, each shall have large success in the NFL. Mainly, I think Saquon Barkley, the only top 10 talent in this group, will have an extremely successful NFL career and carries a very low chance of "bust potential". Assuming that said prediction can be held as true, it will be interesting how NFL GM's will react to this information. The success of recent backs could create a domino effect of running backs being taken much higher than previously expected. With the selection of Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette, both at #4 in 2016 and 2017, respectively, there was much speculation to whether that was too high for a running back. However, following the selection of each, both were able to heavily exceed expectation. The Dallas Cowboys finished as the number one seed in the NFC in the 2016 season and the Jacksonville Jaguars were narrowly beaten in the AFC Championship, this year. The opposite effect could also take place, where running backs drop because of the ability to acquire higher quality backs later evidenced by selections of Kamara, Hunt, and David Johnson each in the third round and Jay Ajayi and Jordan Howard (5th round). General managers could afford not to take higher quality backs earlier in the draft and focus instead of pass rush or secondary help, picking up a running back later that would have similar success. Despite how this impact future drafts, it certainly is an interesting phenomenon that may be attributed to a few lucky classes but seems to be an intriguing trend. This year, the Offensive Rookie of the Year was narrowed down to running backs following the injury of Deshaun Watson. Unless a talent like Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, or Allen can put up a good year, I'd look for the next OROY to be another running back. |
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